Reading Between the Lines of the Economy: What Hemlines, Garbage, and Champagne Can Tell Us

Markets run on data. But not all data comes from balance sheets or central bank briefings. In fact, some surprisingly offbeat indicators have gained attention for capturing shifts in consumer sentiment and broader economic mood—particularly when traditional data is delayed or ambiguous.

Here are a few that might raise an eyebrow but have proven oddly insightful over the years:

1. The Lipstick Index

When wallets tighten, people still crave small luxuries. Historically, sales of affordable indulgences like lipstick have ticked up during recessions—suggesting consumers still want to “treat themselves” without breaking the bank.

2. Men’s Underwear Sales

Alan Greenspan once cited this: men tend to delay buying new underwear in tough times. It’s a quiet, often overlooked signal of discretionary spending habits being pared back.

3. The Hemline Index

Yes, fashion can be an economic mirror. Some economists have linked rising hemlines with economic optimism and longer skirts with downturns. While not statistically rigorous, it reflects how culture and commerce intertwine.

4. Champagne & Garbage

Luxury alcohol sales tend to dip when people feel less confident. Meanwhile, reduced garbage volume can signal lower consumption. Both are indirect ways of measuring how people are spending—and what they’re holding back on.

5. The “R-Word” Index

Analysts have tracked how often the word “recession” appears in news media. A spike often reflects rising anxiety—and that sentiment can move markets even before fundamentals shift.

6. First Dates & Fridges

In harder times, online dating activity can actually increase—suggesting a desire for connection amid financial stress. And odd as it sounds, fewer office refrigerator purchases can signal corporate belt-tightening.

What This Means for You

These indicators aren’t investment signals—but they’re useful barometers of economic sentiment. At Central States Capital Markets, we focus primarily on hard data, fundamentals, and policy. But these quirks help us sense how consumers—and markets—might behave before the numbers confirm it.

In a world where the economic picture isn’t always black and white, sometimes it pays to pay attention to the weird stuff.

Want a clearer view of what actually matters to your portfolio? Let’s talk.

Author - Jeremy Dunning

jdunning@MyCSCM.com